Activity
BBG Seminar + [Last Week in Markets] 5/12 - Buybacks, HIBOR’s Plunge, & TWD
2025-05-13 台北辦公室五月份課程推薦:
Bloomberg Taipei Office May Seminar Highlights:
Date
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Time
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Topic
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實體時段
報名連結
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線上時段
報名連結
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5/15/2025 | 16:00 - 17:00 | [彭博臺北課程] PORT WS 全面升級倒數 - 基礎課程及新版面介紹 | http://www.bloomberg.com/event-registration/?sid=936891 | http://www.bloomberg.com/event-registration/?sid=936894 |
5/16/2025 | 16:00 - 17:00 | [彭博臺北課程] 資產配置新機遇 - PORT Optimizer 助您建構多重資產 ETF | http://www.bloomberg.com/event-registration/?sid=937004 | http://www.bloomberg.com/event-registration/?sid=936894 |
5/22/2025 | 12:30 - 13:30 | [彭博臺北課程] Bloomberg LAB 系列: (2) 股票&固收範例應用 | http://www.bloomberg.com/event-registration/?sid=936765 | http://www.bloomberg.com/event-registration/?sid=936766 |
5/23/2025 | 12:30 - 13:30 | [彭博臺北課程] Bloomberg LAB 系列: (3) LAB 環境建立/調整/設計教學 | http://www.bloomberg.com/event-registration/?sid=936767 | http://www.bloomberg.com/event-registration/?sid=936768 |
5/29/2025 |
12:30 - 13:30
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[彭博臺北課程] 引領綠色潮流 - ESG 投資的全球趨勢與台灣市場的機遇 | http://www.bloomberg.com/event-registration/?sid=937006 | http://www.bloomberg.com/event-registration/?sid=937007 |
Last week in markets – Corporate Buybacks, HIBOR's Plunge, and TWD Appreciation
In April, US stock buybacks reached $233.8 billion, the second highest since 1984, signaling corporate confidence. JP Morgan saw the highest combined dividends and buybacks since 2019, while Apple's reduced buyback from $110 billion to $100 billion disappointed investors. Technology, Financials, and Communications sectors led in buybacks. The HKD O/N Deposit Rate and 1-Month HIBOR plunged, boosting liquidity. Taiwan Dollar surged 8.22% YTD against USD, impacting exporters like TSMC and insurers with high unhedged US assets. Markets questioned USD's reserve-currency status, with gold becoming the second-largest reserve. US and Russia discussed reviving Russian gas sales to Europe amid depleted stockpiles and increased demand.
Equity
- American Corporation Announced Record Stock Buybacks: According to data compiled by Birinyi Associates, the value of announced buybacks in the US reached $233.8 billion in April, the second highest monthly tally in records since 1984. Companies buying their own stocks are usually associated with a signal of confidence. While JP Morgan is seeing the highest combined dividends and buybacks since 2019, Apple’s new buyback announcement disappointed investors as they decreased from $110 Billion to $100 Billion. With Apple, Visa, and Wells Fargo all planning to repurchase their shares during the first quarter, Technology, Financials, and Communications are the leading sectors seeing the highest number of announced buybacks. Terminal Users can use BQLX <GO> and XLTP XBUY <GO> for BQL-powered excel spreadsheet visualization on aggregated buybacks. Use BBK <GO> to track executions and announcements and CACS <GO> to track historical buyback announcements.
- Greg Abel to succeed Warren Buffet as the CEO of Berkshire by end of the year: Current Vice Chairman Greg Abel has a different profile from Warren Buffet, overseeing Berkshire's non-insurance operations such as BNSF, Berkshire Hathaway Energy and dozens of chemicals, industrial and retail operations. Berkshire’s stock had a 5% drop after Buffett's succession announcement, and Abel’s allocation decision with the $350 Billion cash holding will be a story to watch. Top securities regulator Wu Qing, chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission did not shy from sharing his praise with Warren Buffet with the hopes to reform the nation’s $4.5 trillion equity mutual-funds and attract institutional funds determined to bring long-term capital to play to China.
Fixed Income
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HKD O/N Deposit Rate and HIBOR Plunged: HKD has strengthened against the USD recently as the market selling off USD. In response, the HKMA sold HKD129.4 billion HKD against USD to defend the currency peg. Consequently, the HKD O/N Deposit Rate dropped from 4.8725% to –0.1278% in three days. Additionally, the 1-Month HIBOR dropped 58 basis points on Wednesday, marking the most significant drop since 2008. These actions are intended to boost liquidity and reduce the appeal of buying HKD. Terminal users can run {GC MM37 <GO>} to check the HKD HIBOR Fixings Curve evolution and {HKMA <GO>} to learn more about their offerings.
- Hong Kong Home-Sales Could Rebound with HIBOR's Plunge: Normally, the Hong Kong Mortgage Rate equals the 1-Month HIBOR plus α, capped at the Prime Rate minus β, where α and β are bank-specific margins. The current average Mortgage Rate is the 1-Month HIBOR plus 1.3%, capped at 5.25% minus 1.75%, which equals 3.5%. If the HIBOR drops below 2.2%, it would force mortgage rates to be lower. This is positive for homeowners who have suffered from negative equity in recent years. As the HK and US rates tend to move together, the HIBOR might not be able to stay low. Note that HSBC and Hang Seng use their own HIBOR, while other banks follow the HK Association of Banks' HIBOR. All banks have their own Prime Rate. Terminal users can run {SECF HONG KONG PRIME RATE <GO>} and {SECF HONG KONG HIBOR <GO>} to check different banks’ prime rate and HIBOR. Additionally, run {HIBO <GO>} to learn more about the HK Association of Banks and HIBOR.
Forex / Macro
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TWD advanced over 8.22% against USD YTD: Taiwan Dollar making its biggest single-day surge since 1988 last Monday, becoming the best-performing Asia currencies YTD, with 8.22% spot return against USD. However, Taiwan is particularly vulnerable to currency appreciation. The island’s semiconductor sector — featuring the world’s leading contract chipmaker TSMC and crucial suppliers to tech giants like Nvidia and Apple — are the most exposed companies to FX risk given their heavy dollar revenue base and predominantly local manufacturing. TSMC estimated that for every 1% appreciation in Taiwan dollar, its operating margin will decline by 0.4% given 90% of its sales are generated outside of Taiwan. The unexpectedly strengthening TWD is not only bad for exporters but also for local insurance companies with their increasing holdings of unhedged US assets. Terminal users can use {CBC} to check Central Bank of the Republic of China (Taiwan)’s consolidated information, including the Central Bank’s reaction to the currency appreciation.
- Market continued to question USD's reserve-currency standing: Market continues to counter US exceptionalism. Checking on components of global central bank's total FX reserve, Dollar has shrank, while gold is now the 2nd largest reserve "currency", following by Euro. Bloomberg FX research team has published latest research last Wednesday, bring the new concept of the Dollar “frown” theory, which argues for the greenback's concave (Kong cave) relationship with the US economy. In this dollar "frown" theory, markets would opt for other reserve currencies -- even gold, to fly away from risk -- whereas a strong US economy might also leave markets questioning the Fed's capacity to raise interest rates. Terminal users can use {BECO} > Trade/External > Reserves to check Global Central Banks FX reserve components trends from IMF.
Commodity
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US and Russia officials have held talks about reviving Russian gas sales to Europe: The first "cold" winter since Europe lost most of its piped gas flows from Russia has rapidly depleted the continent’s gas stockpiles. The market was further tightened by a drop in wind generation, which increased demand for power from gas-fired plants, just as the region was dealing with the end of fuel transit via Ukraine. Meanwhile, Moscow has long sought to secure a deal on the Power of Siberia 2 link with China to strengthen ties. Russia has become increasingly dependent on sales to China as it struggles to replace the European market, which dramatically reduced after the invasion of Ukraine in 2022. For Beijing, with other supply options and a policy of diversifying imports, an agreement has been far less urgent. China has continued to register record domestic gas production, hitting 22.7 billion cubic meters in March, 5% higher than a year earlier. Domestic output could keep rising throughout 2025, driven by Beijing's energy-security imperative and support from state energy companies. Concurrently, gas imports via pipelines could keep climbing at a double-digit percentage rate in 2025 due to greater inflows from Russia. China's seaborne LNG import volume could fall by as much as 10% in 2025, and 20% if U.S. tariffs remain in place. Terminal users can use {DSET LNG} and {WFOR} for relevant datasets.
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